English: “A Little Forecast of Coming Events”

	Cartoonist:  Edward Windsor Kemble
	Source:  Harper's Weekly
	Date:   September 14, 1912, p. 9

In early September, supporters of Woodrow Wilson interpreted results of the Vermont state election as evidence that the Democratic nominee would win the presidential election in early November. Harper’s Weekly editor George Harvey declared categorically, “Vermont spells Democratic victory.” This E. W. Kemble cartoon appeared in the same issue as Harvey’s analysis of the early state election. The Republican Elephant and Progressive Bull Moose have slid in a jumble to the bottom of the hill to the glee of the high-kicking Democratic Donkey.

The Democratic Party did not actually win the Vermont state election, but the state was so thoroughly Republican that the GOP’s smaller than usual plurality was read as an indication of a general national trend away from the Republican Party in 1912. In the 1908 Vermont state election, Republicans polled about 30,000 and Democrats 16,000; however, in 1912, Republicans received just over 26,000 to Democrats’ 20,000, and Progressives’ 16,000. The Democratic total was the largest ever recorded in the state to that date. In November 1912, as predicted, Wilson won the national election, while Vermont was one of only two states that Republican William Howard Taft carried (the other was Utah). The results of the presidential vote in Vermont were: Taft, 37%; Progressive Theodore Roosevelt, 35%; Wilson, 24.5%, and less than 2% for Prohibitionist Eugene Chafin and Socialist Eugene Debs.